In yesterday's Morning Report we called Oil Futures (/CL) short at $54 right in the 2nd paragraph (this one) and it was an easy call because oil was only up on a Trump tweet and nothing to do with fundamentals and we are, after all Fundamentalists. Oil made a nice $1,000 intra-day decline, weakly bounced (our 5% Rule™) 0.20 to $53.20 and then fell another $500 to net a $1,200 decline.
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We're done with oil and we took a poke long on Gasoline Futures (/RB) at the $1.50 line, but with tight stops below as it's just a technical bounce play. Natural Gas (/NG) Futures made another $500 per contract on the move from $3.05 to $3.10 this morning and we went long on Silver Futures (/SI) in my morning note to our Members at $17.60 at 6:36 am and already we're up 0.05, which pays a very quick $250 per contact – enough for a healthy breakfast.
Declining volume on the NYSE yesterday was 2M shares and advancing volume was 1M shares but this morning, on no volume, the Futures are blasting higher again and though they are a very tempting short, I warned our Members to be very careful attempting to use logic on these markets:
This is why we keep adding more longs to the LTP – the shorts simply don't work…
This is very much like 1999 where sure, it was ridiculous – but it just got more and more ridiculous the next day. You can't keep betting against ridiculous when ridiculous is the rule – you either go with the flow or wait patiently for sanity to return but I'll remind you that Donald Trump is President for the next 4 years so it's kind of like we just voted for the Red Queen anyway…