To trade or not to trade?
Trump said yesterday that the US and China are scheduled to have a "conversation about trade" without giving any actual details after China said what the media are interpreting as signals they won't retaliate against the latest US increase but I interpreted as the usually vague niceties China tends to utter when they are about to crush you (see yesterday's report). Trump is like a cartoon character – with his economy going off a cliff and an election looming but, standing at the edge of the cliff with China about to push him off he says – NOW I have them right where I want them!
Sadly, this is not how it works in real life yet you can't tell that to investors who are being herded back into stocks by MSM pundits who are screaming BUYBUYBUY – as if this is the opportunity of a lifetime with stocks 2.5% below their all-time highs. I for one am disappointed, traders are supposed to be smarter than the average American yet they fall for this BS? Of course, the very, very low volumes on the S&P indicate not many people are really falling for it. The pattern continues that we have low-volume rallies and high-volume sell-offs so there are actually more sellers than buyers – they are just reeling in the buyers like fish on a hook.
S&P ETF (SPY) volume: