Wednesday Worries – Traders Finally Notice Things are not Perfect

The ISM Report was, I would say, NOT good.

We knew that was going to happen on Monday, when I warned you not to be taken in by the window-dressing that was ending the quarter on a false high and we knew that two weeks ago when we cashed in our Member Portfolios at the top of the market so now we're pretty much sitting on the sidelines and laughing at all this BS – which is kind of fun, actually

I also noted on Monday that we have two Fed speakers today:  Harker at 9am and Williams at 10:50, right after the Oil Inventories.  Tomorrow there are 2 more Fed speakers along with PMI and ISM Services but, if they are bad, I can't imagine what Evans and Quarles can do to cheer us up.  Friday is Non-Farm Payroll so major disaster if that goes south and that's why we have 5 speakers after that report – including Jerry Powell at 2pm – so lots of way to prop things up – even if the data continues to suck.

We have Auto Sales today, coming in all day long but, so far, they have sucked in Europe and Asia, with double-digit declines for many companies – that hasn't been helping and the Futures are off another half a point this morning.  Over in Japan Toyota, Honda and Nissan all reported double-digit declines for the US Market in September but the month began and ended on a Sunday and Labor Day was early so it's not really as bad as it seems – just tough comps to last year.  Still, the money won't be there for the end of Q3 – that's what matters.  

That's going to matter a lot to Tesla (TSLA) – so let's keep a close eye on their report too.  

U.S. vehicle sales this year are projected to be around 17.1 million, according to Edmunds, slightly lower than the past few years. Rising car prices and higher interest rates dulled demand in the first six months of 2019.  Detroit auto makers GM and Ford, as well as Fiat/Chrysler recently ended their long-term practice of reporting monthly U.S. sales numbers, although most major car companies still disclose the results each month. The companies now
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PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review – Cashing out of this Crazy Market!

Image result for one million dollars animated gifAnd we're out!  

$2,606,756 is up $2,006,756 (434%) from our $600,000 start of our Long-Term/Short-Term paired portfolios back on Jan 2nd of 2018.  The STP was the real star, turning $100,000 in to $881,976 due to some very good timing as we flipped our hedges almost perfectly several times over the past two years.  That's very unusual – as was the huge $1,124,780 (245%) gain from the LTP's $500,000 start.  We were very close to $2.5M in June but then had a rocky summer – to the point where I said I'd cash out if we fell back to $2M so getting back to $2.6M is a gift horse we dared not look in the mouth – so back to cash and we'll start fresh in November is the plan.

Hedging a $1.7M LTP would be very expensive and what if next time we didn't time the turn in the STP and instead blew the turn and lost money there as well as the LTP.  Then we'd be back to $2M and needing to make 30% to get back to $2.6M and what if it's hard to make money next year or what if we have another crash and the market is down 40% – it's just too much to risk vs. putting $2.6M safely on the sidelines and simply looking for new opportunities.

As I noted in Member Chat last night, in anticipation of getting back to cash, I wrote up "5 Trade Ideas to Make $25,000 in 5 Months" on August 29th, to demonstrate that we didn't need to be massivly invested to make good money.  Those trades are on track for a $33,603 gain in January from a $6,565 cash entry (and $26,659 in margin) and that's 33% for the quarter against $100,000 of sidelined cash – without risking it all to get there.  That's as good as any of our portfolios have done – but with just 5 positions! 

We officially cashed out the week of Sept 16-20th (and these reviews are from those dates – this is just a summary), into options expirations and we did so because we get much better prices


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Testy Tuesday – Q4 Begins With a Lot of Concerns

Is Impeachment an Elitist move that shifts power away from the voters?  

Of course not, that's idiotic as the voters elected the representatives (by actual majorities) that exercise their Constitutionally Mandated oversight of the President who was, in fact, put in power by an elitist Electoral College that did, in fact, ignore the popular vote.  Still, that's the headline Fox "News" is going with this morning as part of an all-out GOP effort to discredit our Government, our laws and our processes – whatever it takes to keep their guy in power

The "President" is, in fact, calling for a Civil War now and is back to his usual media bashing, making me wonder if it was all a dream when we were told in school that a free press is the backbone upon which a Democracy is built.  Since Coporate Dollars have now crept into every click an article generates, there is really no such thing as a free press anymore as it's now all about pleasing the advertisers anyway.

"Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right, from the frame of their nature, to knowledge, as their great Creator, who does nothing in vain, has given them understandings, and a desire to know; but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean, of the characters and conduct of their rulers. Rulers are no more than attorneys, agents, and trustees, of the people; and if the cause, the interest, and trust, is insidiously betrayed, or wantonly trifled away, the people have a right to revoke the authority that they themselves have deputed, and to constitute other and better agents, attorneys and trustees."  -  John AdamsA Dissertation on the Canon and Feudal Law (1765)

"The moment we no longer have a free press, anything can happen. What makes it possible for a totalitarian or any other dictatorship to rule is that people are not informed; how can you have an opinion if you are not informed? If everybody always lies to you, the


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