28,000 Thursday – Dow Back Within 5% of it’s All-Time High

We're back baby!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped out at 29,500 in February as we ignored the virus in China and then it plunged 11,000 (37%) points, to 18,500 in late March and now it's back up 9,500 (51%) since then and we're only 1,500 points (5%) from a full recovery.  Recovery, of course, is a funny word when over 7M Americans now have a disease that has terrible, long-lasting effects on the body but who cares – it's rally time!

The revised Q2 GDP came in yesterday at -31.4%, which was better than the previous estimate of -31.7% but that's not why we rallied, we rallied because it was the last day of the quarter and the hedge funds all like to "dress the window" and make things look good in the brochures they use to lure in fresh month during the following quarter.  

This will be a nice time to go over our hedges and make sure we're prepared – just in case the indexes are rejected at their all-time highs again – given the 200,000 dead and 7M infected and 31.4% decrease in economic activity and all.  Oh, and the nation's slide into Fascism….  So, in our Short-Term Portfolio, which we reviewed back on Sept 18th, we've made no changes but we've made a lot of money as Tesla Calmoed down a little – though that may change at any moment again:

While the TSLA position has the potential to give us a huge pay-off, it's very volatile and we need to focus on our hedges, which we KNOW will pay us if the market falls for sure.  At the moment, our primary hedges are SDS and SQQQ so let's make sure they are adequate to protect what is now a $1M Long-Term Portfolio (up 100% for the year).  

  • SDS – This is now a simple bull call spread and the spread is $12 wide with SDS at $16 so it needs to gain $6 to be 100% in the money for $240,000.  $6 is 37.5% of $16 and SDS is a

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