So much for shorting the Nasdaq.
After a very mild rejection, the Nasdaq 100 went a ahead and plowed over the 9,000 line yesterday, joining the broader Composite Index, which is now at the 9,200 line – up about 50% since Dec of 2018 – just 13 months ago at 6,190. To be fair, we had fallen from 8,133 so an optimist could say that that was a fair price and the sell-off was silly – I'm sure that what they'll say about the next sell-off, despite the last one being 22.5%, which would take us back to 7,130 if something "silly" happens again.
If we call 7,500 a good base to climb from, then the 9,000 line is the 20% mark and 9,300 is a 20% overshoot of that mark (20% of the run up, not 20% of 9,000) so that's the next mountain the Nasdaq will have to climb – not even 1% away these days – we should be able to do that standing on our heads if this rally is meant to continue.
Our index shorts were a fail as Apple (AAPL) climbed up to $310 and the end-stage of bubble rallies can often be market by parabolic moves up and one has to wonder where all this money is coming from with FAANG Stocks gaining almost $2Tn in value in the past year, which is 10% of the US GDP and our GDP only grew 2% ($400Bn) so, even if every last cent of the entire US GDP expansion went into those 5 stocks, where did the other $1.6Tn come from?
The entire planet's GDP is about $90Tn and it grew at 3.5% so there's $3.15Tn, so I guess maybe the entire World put 2/3 of their 2019 growth into those 5 stocks but the rest of the markets did expand as well – up 24% Globally – and that means we're right about the $100Tn mark in global equities, having started 2018 at $77.5Tn.