Here we are again.
I don't even have to write anything new today, I'll just copy and paste what I said on September 15th, in: "Terrific Tuesday – S&P 3,420 Yet Again":
As we discussed last week (when we failed at 3,420), 3,420 is our Strong Bounce Line and the 20% Line so we knew we were likely to re-test it – the question is whether or not the S&P passes the test and we may find that out this morning as the Futures are pointing up yet another 1% – just like yesterday when we made most of our gains in the thinly-traded pre-market session.
Our 5% Rule™ told us 3,420 would be our Strong Bounce line on the way back up but it was much easier to call a short the first time we tested the line, as we did on the 9th in our Live Member Chat Room, because we had not consolidated for a move higher at the time. Now the markets have had time to digest the bounces and we're above on all the indexes but the S&P 500 as back on the 9th it was:
Another chance to short at 3,420 on /ES with tight stops above. Lined up with 28,200, 11,475 and 1,540.
That is NOT the case this morning with Dow 28,320, Nasdaq 11,532 and Russell way up at 1,617. ONLY the S&P 500 hasn't confirmed the move over the strong bounce line so it's no longer wise to bet against that happening. You have to take these moves in context – looking at a single chart doesn't tell you enough. And we're making this move WITHOUT stimulus and WITH Donald Trump likely to be out of office in January – so this is a strong move so far.
The Russell's 1,600 line only just turned green yesterday and the NYSE is at 13,100 this morning but, if it goes green too on the Must Hold line, the other indexes are going to have a much easier time making another run back to the top of the range – a range…