What happened to our highs?
We had a nice rally Wednesday and Thursday, after the Fed Minutes but that's gone now and we're back where we were on the 10th – two wasted weeks in the market. You can blame the virus or blame Bernie Sanders (who Leon Cooperman says is worse than the virus) or blame Donald Trump (the list is endless) but, for whatever reason, we're having trouble going significantly higher than we were on Jan 15th (3,320), before we fell back to 3,200 when the virus first broke out.
NOW we have some guidance and, generally, it's not good. Obviously, no one is saying the virus is going to be a boon to business – outside of mask makers and a few Pharmecutical Companies hoping to have a treatment of vaccine. BUT, on the other hand, the Coronavirus is costing the Airline Sector $30Bn and $30Bn is A LOT of money – even these days. In 2003, SARS cost the Airlines $7Bn so – inflation. Losing $30Bn, however, when you are trading at 15x earnings means you are losing $450Bn in market cap or 0.5% of the entire global market.
And, while we don't have the exact figures, I know when I go on a trip, the airfare is generally less than 1/3 of what I spend overall so we can assume another $1Tn of capitalization damage to the travel, entertainment and restaurant sectors so now we're chopping 1.5% off the Global Markets. China's auto sales dropped 92% in the first half of February in the World's largest car market, accounting for 25% of global sales.
We're getting horror stories from manufacturers all over the World, including Apple (AAPL) and Proctor and Gamble (PG), the World's two largest consumer products companies.
"China is our second largest market – sales and profit," PG's COO Moeller said in a statement that was also included in an 8-K filing. "Store traffic is down considerably, with many stores closed or operating with reduced hours."