Will we still have Janet Yellen to kick around next year?
Almost certainly we will because her term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn't expire until February, 2018 but, even if she is not re-appointed as Chair – she's still a Governor until 2024 and Trump has no ability to remove her. Likewise, Fisher remains vice-chair through June of 2018 and his Governorship lasts through 2020 and there are only 7 Governors with two open slots because, like the Supreme Court, Congress has refused to confirm any of Obama's picks for replacements (yes, they are that petty). So now it's going to be up to Trump to confirm 2 new Fed Governors but it will be many years (past his term) before it's likely to have any real influence on the Fed.
And you've heard the expression "don't fight the Fed", right? Well that goes for Presidents too because the Fed represents the nations' bankers, not their voters and you cross the money-men (or women) at your own great peril. Janet will get a chance to tell us about it today as she begins her two-day testimony to Congress. It's a great day to short the market (same levels as yesterday) as you can expect questions from Democratic Congresspeople like "Just how insane is Donald Trump's economic policy and how much damage will it do to our country?" – stuff like that…
Of course, Yellen will attempt to remain bi-partisan and pretend she doesn't know what programs he's proposing and will even pretend she can't do math and, hardest of all for a grandma from Brooklyn, she will pretend she has no opinion on the subject – it's going to fun! Fun, but it will come off as uncertain and confusing to those watching and you really don't want to see that when you are holding stocks at the top of the market rally.
Yesterday we thought 2,180 would not hold on the S&P Futures (/ES) and, of course, they did not but, in our Live Trading Webinar yesterday afternoon, we decided to short the Russell (/ES) and we're currently short 6 at 1,302.8 so we'll see how that plays out.