I mentioned the Dollar weakness the other day but we thought the 90 line was going to hold and we did have a very brief bounce but now we're looking terminal as that line fails to hold as well thanks to Wednesday's Fed Statement and Powell's press conference where they said they won't be changing their policy – even if the US Economy does improve.
While FREE MONEY FOREVER may be great for the stock market, it's not very good for the value of the currency those stocks are priced in and that too is then good for the stock market – how convenient! Dollar weakness also reflected rising expectations that Washington lawmakers will finally agree on an economic rescue package that’s seen as necessary to shore up a sagging recovery.
The Fed, in its last policy meeting of 2020, on Wednesday reassured investors the central bank would maintain its easy monetary policy stance, including its bond-buying program, until the economy shows “substantial progress” toward recovering from the damage inflicted by the virus. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his news conference, indicated the central bank wouldn’t be hasty in unwinding its monetary stimulus measures even though the central bank’s economic forecasts appeared a bit more upbeat than previous iterations.
“The FOMC’s dot-plot looked hawkish…Mr. Powell’s comments were anything but,” wrote Kit Juckes, global macro strategist at Société Générale, referring to the individual rate forecasts produced by members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
On top of Powell's comments, Congress does seem to be moving towards another $900Bn stimulus bill so the printing presses continue to fun at full speed as $900Bn may not sound like a lot these days but it's still 5% of an $18Tn economy – as our smallest stimulus of the year.