Flailing Thursday – Indexes Struggle at the 50-Day Moving Averages

Hold that line!

It's a football term but approprate for the indexes as the moving averages indicate the line at which the bulls and bears are both struggling to gain ground.  As in a football game, sometimes the bulls cross into bear territory and sometimes the bears cross into bull territory but even a game that seems certainly won by one side or the other can suddenly reverse in a last-minute rally.  

While anyone can win a single game, the real measure of a team's strenght is how they persevere over a whole season or even seasons – as that is the way dynasties are born.  The 1927 Yankees were considered the greatest baseball team in history, not just because of that one season but because, between 1921 and 1928 they were in 6 of 8 World Series and won 3 of them (3 of the last 4 as they got better and better).  

No matter how good a baseball team may look during the season, once they enter the playoffs and the World Series, they come up against the best of the best from other divisions and other leagues and that's where they are truly tested.  The moving averages are like that – on one side you have bulls and on the other side you have bears and it's very easy for the bulls to approach the moving averages from below and it's very easy for the bears to approach the moving averages from above but, once they hit those lines – they face only the most determined bulls and bears and that's where the championships are won or lost.

The 50-day moving average is like the playoffs and the 200-day moving average is like the World Series – played for all the marbles.  But, before your team can get to the World Series they have to win the playoffs and, at the moment, that's where the bulls are – struggling to get over the 50-day moving averages before they can even think about taking on the 200-day bears, who took the market down 20% in a single quarter and, though the bulls have rallied back – don't count those bears out just yet.

When we see our 5% Rule™
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