It's a crazy market.
On the whole, we've gone nowhere all week. We fell from 2,200 to 2,100 and a weak bounce from there is 2,120 and a strong bounce is 2,140 and we're at 2,129 on the S&P Futures (/ES) but what a wild ride it has been in between, especially after having such a sleepy summer at the top of the range.
Sadly, that range is from 1,850 to 2,220 (20%) with 2,035 being the 10% line and THAT is where we expect to correct to in this downturn and yes, it's a downturn even if we went up yesterday. Just like a day of snow doesn't mean Global Warming isn't happening, a one-day rally doesn't mean you're not in a bear market – that kind of logic is what destroyed many traders in 2008, when they kept "buying the dips" as stocks fell 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, even 60% from their highs.
This is why we have our fabulous 5% Rule™, which prevents us from falling for false rallies. I drew you a chart yesterday saying we would fail at the strong bounce line on the S&P (2,140) and guess what, that's EXACTLY where we failed. In fact, the title of the post was: "Thursday: Failure at the Strong Bounce Lines Leads to 5% Correction" so pretty much our job was simply to wait for those strong bounce lines and then go short – not complicated.
The S&P Futures pay $50 per point so the drop from 2,140 to 2,130 has already paid $500 per contract – not bad for a day's work and 2,130 is now our stop line but, hopefully, we get a sharper move down on this wild options expiration day. Remember: I can only tell you what is going to happen in the market and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!
This morning, the Nasdaq (/NQ) makes an excellent short as it crosses below the 4,800 mark (with very tight stops above) and that's lined up with 2,130 on the S&P (/ES), 18,050 on the Dow (/YM) and 1,215 on the Russell (/TF) and our system…