Friday Already? Non-Farm Payrolls Will Set the Table

Now we're 7 for 7 in 2017 Futures picks!

As I noted in yesterday morning's post, we were still waiting for Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar (replay here) pick, shorting the Russell (/TF) Futures at 1,385, to bear some fruit and we were well-rewarded with a $1,000 per contract drop that began about 10:30, leading us to a $9,290 winner on our 10 contract position, capping off a perfect week for our Futures Trade Ideas.

While it would be smart to quit while we're so far ahead, no one ever said we were smart and this morning we're back to shorting Oil (/CL) below the $54 line as It's up on a weak Dollar as well as general silliness after the Saudis announced that yes, they really have cut production, just like they said they would when oil was $40.  We've already gotten a 40% bump out of this news – how many times can they say the same thing and get another bullish reaction?

OPEC won't actually publish production levels until mid-February and, even when they do, you can't trust them.  OPEC data is not based on physical counts but on surveys and computer modeling based on numbers submitted by member states – who have been known to cheat and fudge their numbers for decades.  

EIA energy exportSpeaking of decades, we're just one decade away from the US becoming a net exporter of energy in 2026, according to yesterday's EIA Report.  In all but two of the seven cases modeled in the report, the EIA predicts that the US will become an energy exporter within the next decade, as natural gas production and exports rise and petroleum imports decrease. 

One could argue that the US is practically a net exporter already as we exported 23.26M barrels of Petroleum Products last week and we STILL had a net build in inventories of another 6.1M barrels.  So already, 29.36M (58%) of the 50.45M barrels we import from overseas in a week were not needed for US consumption – yet oil prices are $22 (68%) higher than they were last year – there is no logical reason for this!  
continue reading