Friday Fallout – Yes, the Markets Can Go Down As Well As Up!

What a week.

Congratulations if you caught our call to short the Dow at 18,500 yesterday morning, that was good for a profit of $500 on each contract as we tested 18,400 in the afternoon – not bad for a day's work!  Our other winning short index calls were:

  • 2,165 on the S&P Futures (/ES), which fell to 2,155 – up $500 per contract
  • 4,650 on the Nasdaq (/NQ), which fell to 4,630 – up $400 per contract 
  • 1,205 on the Russell (/TF), which fell to 1,198 – up $700 per contact

As you can see from the Dow chart above, we took a few losses poking short on the Dow during the week but it's all worth it when you catch a big winner on the way down.  This morning, of course, we're moving back up on no volume – which is why we end up shorting in the first place.   

Per our 5% Rule™, the week's fall from 18,550 to 18,400 is 150 points so a weak bounce is 30 points to 18,430 and a strong bounce is 60 points to 18,460 and 18,475 is the 50% line, which is where we'd poke short again with very tight stops and then, once the strong bounce line fails – we'd look for shorting opportunities at the strong bounce lines on all our indexes again.

Despite successfully playing for a bounce on oil and gasoline in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room, we are generally expecting a repeat of last Fall's fall and that is going to be bad news for the broad market as there is already a severe disconnect between Energy Sector stocks and the price of the energy they sell.

Like much of the S&P, a combination of financial engineering (and note that Business Insider is now a lot more critical of Microsoft's (MSFT) earnings than I was on Wednesday) and completely irrational exuberance has led to unrealistic valuations that even the loosest of Fed models won't be able to sustain.  With Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both heavy Dow components, shorting that index at the all-time highs is a no-brainer:

 

 

 

IN PROGRESS