Friday Flip Flop – Market takes back SOME of the Losses – Still Down 5% for the Month

Up and down we go – but mostly down

We're still stuck in that range but at least we haven't failed the 200 dma – yet.  The Russell has already failed and the NYSE was on the line yesterday but recovered to hold 12,500 and this morning the Futures are up a little so it doesn't look like it will be a total catastrophe into the weekend – so we still have that to look forward to.

As you can see from our S&P 500 chart, we're stuck in a range between the 5% and 10% lines on our Big Chart as well as between the 50-day moving average and the 200 dma and whichever way this resolves itself should set the tone for the 2nd half of the year but first, it may be a summer where we drift in-between.  That's why we're so easily swayed by any news item – when you are trading between major support and resistance – it takes very little to change your course. 

We're still playing for Gasoline (/RBN19) to change it's course and we're very surprised to be losing $1,250 per contract at the moment on our long position from Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar and we now have 4 long contracts at an average entry of $1.935 with /RBN19 at $1.905 and the good news is it will be cheap to fill up our tanks ahead of the holiday weekend and the better news is we are still expecting a run up – maybe not until next week though…

Our theory is that the rollover of /RBM19 (June contract), which expires on Tuesday, is putting downward pressure on /RBN19 (July contract) and that the timing of the last EIA Report (through 5/17) failed to capture the orders for gas stations who are topping their tanks off this week – ahead of the holiday driving.  AAA expects this to be the busiest holiday driving weekens since 2005, when we were still a care-free nation who thought housing was a great investment.

The markets were high in 2005 also and they kept going higher for 3 more years before finally collapsing.  This morning, Durable Goods are down 2.1% for April but a lot of that is from BA and core Durable
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