Still no 20,000?
Well, that's got to be disappoining to the bulls (and all those Dow 20,000 hat salesmen). Makes Barron's look a bit foolish but, then again, when don't they? Unfortunately, Jan 20th ushers in the Trump error and, as you can see from this chart – markets usually suck under Republican administrations. Now, some may say that's a political statement, because my FACT involved a political party and, to those people, I say suck it!
Why do the markets perform poorly just because you stop giving money to the Bottom 90%, who spend their money and cause it to move throught the economy with a 3.6 multiplier and, instead, give it to the Top 10%, who save it and cause it to have a fractional multiplier? According to many Conservative studies – we'll just never know but, what we do know, is that if we tax the people who don't spend money less, they'll get much, much richer.
The so-called Trump rally, at the moment, stands at net 6% since the election and that's better than Bush II (the election was contested so chaos) and better than Nixon or Reagan but nowhere near as good as Ike's 8% rally but ALL of them, every single Republican President who flipped the Presidency, all of them has poor markets during their first year.
Hey, maybe this time is different, right. After all, if we don't start a trade war with China, we still have those nukes to fall back on. If nothing else, this will be the most exciting administration since Nixon.
For those of you not old enough to remember, that administration lurched from scandal to scandal and completely destroyed the economy with an aggressive military policy that rewarded their defense contractor backers. At the time (early 70s) we were still practicing our "duck and cover" drills because you never knew when those pesky Russians were going to drop a nuke on our heads.