Monday Market Momentum – Fed Hopes Keep Things Going

AAPL $250!

That's where it looks like we're going this week as Apple (AAPL) closed at $246.58 and it up over $247 pre-market.  At $1.14Tn, Apple is just a bit more valuable than Microsoft's (MSFT) $1.074Tn valuation but Apple made $59.5Bn last year while MSFT "only" made $39Bn so AAPL is quite the relative bargain and we will see just how much of a bargain on Wednesday evening.  

That's not the only thing happening Wednesday, of course.  On Wednesday we also get our next Fed Rate Cut – or else!  Expectations are near 100% that the Fed will cut rates another quarter-point at Wednesday's meeding (2pm) and then Powell speaks at 2:30 to justify how record-low unemployment and record-high stock prices justify record-low interest rates and a record-high Fed Balance Sheet.  He'll probably use the "Chewbacca Defense".

Meanwhile, AAPL stock is up $50 since August and, as a Dow component, it ads about 8.5 points per $1 gained and that, like Chewbacca, does not make sense but it's the way the Dow is structured so that $1 gained by $1.14Tn AAPL stock has the same weighting on the index as $1 gained by $50Bn Walgreens (WBA) or $37Bn Dow Chemical (DOW).  Anyway, $50 x 8.5 is 425 Dow points and the Dow is up about 1,000 points so about half the Dow's gains are coming from Apple and that's true for the S&P and the Nasdaq as well.

We are waiting to see if other stocks pick up the slack – because that's what we'll need to break over to new all-time highs – Apple can't do it all unless it pulls a Tesla (TSLA) kind of move and pops 30% on earnings, which would be another $60 on AAPL.  Of course, that would be ridiculous but so was TSLA's gain and this weekend the company went into a full-court PR press pushing everything from Solar Panels to Trucks to keep the momentum going as Musk looks to re-capture $380, which would put Tesla at $78Bn in market cap – "only" 80 times their best-case earnings projections for 2020 ($900M).

After losing $702M in Q1 and $408M in Q2 this year, TSLA announced on Wednesday night
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