Well we had our first Financial Disaster this weekend.
The Financial press is painting over it as we don't want to upset people at the end of the quarter but Archegos Capital Management had to (for reasons unknown) liquidate $30Bn worth of holdings, one of which was Viacom (VIAC) which dropped 50% in last week. While $100 was too high for a stock we loved at $40, $50 is back to being too low and we bottomed out at $40 in Friday before bargain-hunters finally moved in.
VIAC all by itself lost $30Bn in market cap last week and now it's at $30Bn at $48.50/share for a company making $2.5Bn a year – it's a great time to jump into this blue chip holding and, for our Long-Term Portfolio, we're going to play it this way:
- Sell 10 VIAC 2023 $40 put for $12 ($12,000)
- Buy 15 VIAC 2023 $40 calls for $18.50 ($27,750)
- Sell 10 VIAC Jan ('22) $60 calls for $7.50 ($7,500)
This is an aggressive net $8,000 into what is technically a $30,000 spread but we can easily sell 5 more short calls to recoup 1/2 of our cash but, more importantly, we can roll the 2022 $60 calls out to 2023 $80 calls (for example), which are $7.50 too and sell 5 more and we'd drop our basis to about $4,000 on a $60,000 spread that would be at least half in the money or we wouldn't have rollled it. That's our plan if VIAC goes higer and, if it's flat, we'lll sell the 2023 $60 calls for another $7,500 and engineer a free spread and, if it's lower, we're very happy to add to the position as our worst-case scenario is being forced to own 1,000 shares of VIAC at net $48 – the current price.
That's a lovely trade to start the week off with, Archegos may not want VIAC anymore but we sure do! Another stock that was trashed by Archegos is Discovery Financial (DISCA) – also losing about half their "value" but value is in quotes as $80 was ridiculous and $42 isn't much better for a Credit Card Company