Monday Market Movement – Back to the Top

It's quiet time.

With a Fed Meeting a week from Wednesday, the Fed has entered a "quiet period" where there won't be any policy statements.  At the moment, based on last week's comments, odds are strongly favoring a 0.25% rate cut – even though the market is at record highs, unemployment is at record lows and inflation is at or over the Fed's 2% target so a rate cut, if we get one, will undercut faith in the Federal Reserve as being independent of the Government and will render them far less effective for years to come – but at least Trump will get his bonus rally.

As you can see from the S&P chart, as we expected, breaking out over the Strong Bounce line is taking us back towards the highs and last time we did this (June) on hopes of a China deal and a rate cut, we ran up another 2.5% over 2,950 to 3,020 so 3,100 would be the ideal goal of this run on the S&P (/ES) – at which point we'd probably start shorting again – deal or no deal with China.

Still, there's probably a month of this nonsense to deal with – 30 days in which the bulls will once again become insufferable with their ever-rising predictions for higher and higher market prices.  It's a very annoying time to be a Fundamentalist and, come to think of it – we don't enjoy the crashes either – maybe I should stop thinking and become a TA guy…

Not a very exciting week on the Economic Calendar and earnings are barely trickling in at this point but still a few big guns reporting – even at this leat stage:

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GameStop (GME) is very interesting as yes, they are going through a rough patch but not as rough as is not indicated by their $4.30 price as they made $7.5M last quarter and $4.30 is just $413M for the whole company so, even if they only made $30M for the year – that's still pretty reasonable but Q4 is their big one and they had an operating income of $196,300 from 11/2-2/2 which was wiped out
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