Monday Market Movement – Dollar Down, Markets Up – What Else is New?

The Dollar is down 0.5% this morning.

Dow Futures (/YM) are up 0.5% to match but the Russell (/RTY), Nasdaq (/NQ) and S&P (/ES) are up less than 0.25% as of 8am and that's not at all impressive.  /NQ is right on the 7,100 line, so an easy short below the mark but Apple (AAPL) is holding their developer's convference this afternoon and may say something bullish – so it's a very dangerous short.  Apple popped over $190 last week, now just $65Bn shy of a $1Tn valuation and 7% more ($13.30) will do the trick and we'll have the World's first Trillion Dollar Company.

If AAPL is doing well, the Nasdaq does well and so does the Dow, where every AAPL point is 8.5 Dow points and so does the S&P, where Apple makes up 4% of the 500 Indexe's total weighting.  

If it were not for Apple's great effect on the market, I'd be enthusiastically shorting the indexes but, as it is, we keep getting stopped out of our short positions as they keep making new highs.  This morning we're taking a whack at shorting the S&P Futures at 2,745 and the Dow Futures at 24,750 but tight stops over those lines as we near the pont of maximum crazy but the Dollar (/DX) should be councy at 93.70 and that will hopefully cause a pullback into the open – but only a small one as we expect it to have trouble getting back over 94.

Trade Wars are bad for the Dollar because the Dollar is an instrument of trade and China, Canada, Mexico and Europe have all threatened to retaliate if Trump doesn't reverse his position by this Thursday-Saturday G7 meeting so you bulls out there are betting on Trump being a great deal-maker, which is his repution but not at all his actual results.

Nonetheless, we've punched back over that 2,728 line on the S&P, which generally puts us back in bullish territory until it fails but I called for CASH!!! in early May, as we briefly popped over the line – as I didn't think it would last and I don't have enough faith in Trump's negotiating skills to think this rally will last either but, if we do manage to stay over the
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