Monday Market Movement – Earnings Season Finally Begins!

Related imageIt's earnings season!  

Finally we get to see whether or not these record highs come with record earnings!  We got off to a bang on Friday with beats from FRC ($1.26 vs $1.22 expected), INFY ($9.36 vs $8.95), JPM ($2.65 vs $2.35), PNC ($2.61 vs $2.60) and WFC ($1.20 vs $1.10) so so far, so good it seems and, this morning, Citigroup (C) came in at $1.87 vs $1.79 expected and Goldman Sachs (GS) is $5.71 vs $5.02, M&T Bank (MTB) $3.35 vs $3.29 and we're waiting for Schwab (SCHW) and Washington Federal (WAFD) but things are looking good in banking

Goldman Sachs, of course, gained 2.5% on Friday so today's earnings is giving them no additional lift and that's another sign of a toppy market as the whole banking sector went up on just a few earnings reports so woe unto any of them who fail to deliver going forward.  We still have plenty of Banks to hear from but, more interesting, will be the companies who may have been affected by the Government Shut-Down in Q1 – that's where we're expecting to get some resistance.

Earnings Whispers has the above cool charts for earnings and I love the "implied move" into earnings as it can alert you to seriously mis-matches that we can potentially take advantage of like Micro-Vision, where options imply a 50% move but the average move is only 11.3%.  MVIS is essentially a penny stock, trading at $1.03 but it does have options abd a fun way to play them is to sell the August $1 calls for 0.40 and sell the August $1 puts for 0.30 so you are collecting 0.70 and anything less than an 0.70 move between now and Aug 16th (expiration day) is your profit.  

Sketchers (SKX) on the other hand, usually makes violent moves on earnings yet it's priced for a relatively calm 7.6% move so we can play them to be more violent than that but we can also use our heads and, though we love to be bullish on SKX when they are low (and we are aggressively long in our…
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