Monday Market Movement – Post Fed, Pre G20

There's a whole lot of nothing going on this week

We''re in between earnings seasons and in between market-moving events and, though we do have a GDP Report on Friday, it's the third revision to Q1, not a new report and should be steady at 3.1% so – yawn.  It's the 2nd Quarter's GDP that's in trouble as estimates have that down around 2% and possibly below.  Durable Goods come out on Wednesday and, unless they are a strong positive upside (doubtful), we're closing Q2 with a whimper, not a bang.

Other data that matters this week is Consumer Confidence tomorrow along wiht Home Sales and Personal Income and Spending on Friday along with Michigan Sentiment.  Earnings season restarts in the middle of July with bank earnings but, until then, it's pretty much all speculation as to whether things are getting better or worse on the eearnings front.  

One major data-pont that has us worried is Factory Activity, whichhas gone into contraction in the US, Europe and Japan and is sitting at decade lows as of the June surveys.  And it's not just the PMI that's in the dumps, the latest IHS Survey found strong correlation to the downside in all aspects of Manufacturing AND Services:

  • Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.6 (50.9 in May). 40-month low.
  • Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.7 (50.9 in May). 40-month low.
  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (50.5 in May). 117-month low.
  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.2 (50.7 in May). 37-month low.