Monday Market Movement – Recovering or Just Bouncing?

We're up 300 more points! 

That would be exciting but it's only 1.25%, which is exactly what our 5% Rule™ predicted and, at this stage, is certainly no sign of market strength yet.  While we flipped bullish in Friday Morning's PSW Reprort, with a long at Dow (/YM) 24,000 that is now up $2,500 per contract (you're welcome).  Of course, first it was down $2,500 per contract (cue screams) but not if you followed our instructions, which were:

Well here's the test of 24,000 and we're failing that and 2,600 and 6,350 and 1,470 but those are now the lines we want to play long if we move back up but very ugly if we're failing that. 

Just before the market opened, in our Live Member Chat Room, I updated my prediction for our Members:

For now, we'll worry about the S&P lines – same as yesterday because, if we have to redraw them, then the Index is already failing (and forcing us to use lower levels).

And, of course, the lines don't change but the line we key off does.  Right now, we are looking at the 20% line on /ES and premising we consolidate there but, as I said yesterday, I think it's more likely we drift down to the 10% line (2.420) and that's where we should consolidate into Q2.  So, on the whole, I'm thinking 2,684 is going to fail today and we'll retest 2,640 next week and possibly blow it – hence the desire for more hedges!  


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