Oil spiked this morning.
Back to $48.87 (/CL) in part due to the supposed OPEC deal to make a deal in December and in part because Hurricane Matthew is flirting with category 5 and heading towards the Gulf of Mexico, where it threatens a lot of production and will disrupt imports heading that way. At the moment – it's projected to turn north and graze Florida's East Coast, where it would instead become an insurance nightmare.
We took the opportunity to double down on our oil Futures shorts (see last week's Live Trading Webinar) and we'll keep an eye on the Oil ETF (USO) for an opportunity to add more Nov $12 puts at $1 if we get a good spike up. Nothing Fundamental has changed in the oil market – just a lot of sound and fury giving the bulls a bit of hope this morning.
We already took the money and ran on our other Futures Webinar play on Coffee (/KC), picking up $600 per contract on the quick spike higher and we're still long on the ETF (JO), which we picked last month at $20 (now $22.20) when I was on at the Nasdaq and I'll be back there this morning for another interview with another pick.
Friday's rally was, as we expected way back last Monday, driven by Fed Speak and UNSUBSTANTIATED rumors that Deutsche Bank (DB) was settling with the DOJ for "just" $5Bn but German law is such that, if there were actually a settlement, they would have had to report it in 24 hours and they didn't so we'll have to see how much of Friday's 14% rally will unwind as we drift back to uncertainty and then we have to wonder how much of the Financial ETF (XLF)'s 1.5% rally will be given back and then we have to wonder how much of the S&P (SPY)'s 1% rally will be given back.
So that's on our plate for today and the Fed is still spinning plates this week with 9 speeches this week but 3 of them are super-hawk Jeff Lacker for some reason and he gets the first at-bat tomorrow (8am) and then 1pm and 5pm…