Up and up we go.
If we knew voting for Trump was going to be this good for the markets, we would have doubled down on our longs. As it is, our Long-Term Portfolio gained $98,471 since Nov 6th and that's 20% in 15 days so thank you, Mr. President!
Of course our Long-Term Portfolio is all long, protected by our Short-Term Portfolio, which lost $10,968 (11%) on our hedges but not so bad as the net is still up $87,503, which is a gain of 14.5% in 15 days in our paired portfolios (we began with $500,000 in the LTP and $100,000 in the STP). Our self-balancing Options Opportunity Portfolio gained $7,843 (7.8%) over the same period and our well-hedged Butterfly Portfolio gained $16,100 (16%) – actually our best overall performer – even though it's our most conservative.
As you may have noticed, I've been banging the table on Gasoline Futures (/RB) and that finally took off this morning, breaking towards our $1.45 target. Natural Gas (/NG) hit $2.95 and that's a "take the money and run" level as $3 is going to be hard to break and the cold weather on the East Coast that's goosing the contracts will only last this week and then it's back to warmer than usual weather.
Speaking of weather, we figure out why Warren Buffett changed his mind on airlines and it's because of the weather. NASA just launched a very advanced satellite that will do for weather what Hubble did for astronomy and will improve our forecasting ability by leaps and bounds. That's going to benefit the arilines, a business where every penny counts and knowing where the storms are going to be can save them Billions. The current NOAA satellite is 40 years old!
More accurate weather info can help airlines plan better and save Billions of Dollars and that's right to their bottom line. United does $40Bn in sales and drops $3Bn to the bottom line (9%) so even a 2% increase in operating efficiency is about another Billion for them and a 33% increase in net income. Now THAT makes sense as a Buffett play.