Monday Morning Math Notes – Looking Ahead in a Viral Market

Should we stay or should we go?  

THAT is the question I've been pondering this weekend as we've had an excellent run in the markets off the bottom and all of our Member Portfolios, except the Dividend Portfolio, are back in the black and we should be THRILLED, in this kind of market – just to get our money back.  Still, the thing is – if we go back to cash – then what?  This is where the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) comes in because, while we are comfortable that we can take our cash and make money in any kind of market – we still don't want to miss out on deals of the century, do we?

So I have been reading and thinking all weekend and watching the virus counts and looking at what's happening around the World and considering the data and here's what I think:

21% of 1,300 people tested randomly in New York City and 14% of the people in New York State had antibodies for the Coronavirus.  That means 1 out of 6 people have been exposed enough to have had a reaction – it doesn't mean they are definitely immune but we're talking about 15%(ish) of 20M people (that's 3M for Fox viewers) and "only" 300,000 (so far) had symptoms that were noticable enough to get counted while the rest developed anti-bodies after apparently mild exposures.

In New York City, about 21 percent tested positive for coronavirus antibodies during the state survey. The rate was about 17 percent on Long Island, nearly 12 percent in Westchester and Rockland Counties and less than 4 percent in the rest of the state.  State researchers sampled blood from the approximately 3,000 people they had tested over two days, including about 1,300 in New York City, at grocery and big-box stores. The results were sent to the state’s Wadsworth facility in Albany, a respected public health lab.

In California, antibody testing in two studies found rates of exposure as hign as 4% in Santa Clara County and 5% in Los Angeles County.  Keep in mnd the sampling, at stores, may disproportionately include those who have either already had the illness, or those who naturally tend to go out more and so…
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