Money Market Movement – Up, of Course

Up and up the markets go, when the madness stops, no one knows

There's simply no reality to these market moves any more.  We just finished our May Portfolio Review and our net gain was only 2.7% while the S&P gained 3.1% because we're a bit too bearish for this rally and our hedges are killing us and today we're up yet again in the Futures, back to 2,440 on /ES, where we had success shorting them last week.  

The Nasdaq (/NQ) is up 50 points from Friday's close at 5,733 and there's no reason for this excitement – it's just a normal pumped-up Monday and, so far, not even a weak bounce from the Nasdaq's fall from 5,900 to 5,700 (ignoring the spike below).  These moves are not just mechanical and fake but obviously so but I'll bet you already forgot that we had this conversation last Monday, when I said:

It's really all about the Nasdaq (/NQ) which, so far, has fallen from 5,900 to below 5,700 but we'll be looking for a weak bounce over the 5,700 line (40 points) to 5,740 so going long on /NQ is a no-brainer this morning with tight stops below the line.  If we make a strong bounce (5,780) today, then all of Friday's sell-off can be quickly forgotten but failing the weak bounce would be a bearish sign and we'd be looking for other indexes to short as well.

Mondays are, of course, meaningless days in the market, especially in the summer and we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see what's really going on but a huge correction like we had on Friday COULD lead people to contemplate that some of the overbought crap they have in their portfolios may not actually be worth 100 times earnings. 

That was June 12th and here's what the Nasdaq has done since:

You can see why we remain skeptical, right?  The Nasdaq did exactly what our 5% Rule™ predicted, exactly when it predicted and we made nice…
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