Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working Bigly?

I'm hoping for a terrible jobs number.  

Just for the sheer comedy of seeing how Trump blames Obama for it after already taking full credit for all the jobs that were created in January and February.  He also took full credit for Consumer Comfort, which is back to where it was before the last crash so, Yay!, I guess but, if you dig into the CC number, you find something very interesting. 

It turns out that Republicans are unbelievably comfortable, some would say irrationally comfortable – as if they were ignoring fundamental realities and answering survey questions based on what they WISH were true, as opposed to what is factually true.  Democrats, on the other hand, are the least comfrotable they've been in 10 months with the biggest monthly drop since Sept, 2013, when Syria used chemical weapons and Obama authorized the use of force (that's the sort of thing that makes Democrats uncomfortable). 

This is not that unusual, of course.  Under Bush II, Democratic comfort was down around 20 while GOP comfort was in the 50s but GOP comfort fell off rapidly as the market collapsed and both were under 30 when Obama was elected and the Democrats perked up faster than the Republicans but both topped out early last year and, since then, it's been Republicans on the March.  

Keep in mind this is a "feeling" index that reflects jobs, inflation, spending habits, debt and it's a lagging indicator though it does ask consumers about what they THINK will happen – turn out consumers are generally as clueless as any economoron on that front (see 2008).  Most significantly, consumers are generally unaware of geopolitical risks or changing macro situations.  

8:30 Update:  We pulled our index shorts as we expected a strong report but we'll be shorting again once the market is done rallying off a positive jobs number because all it does is put the Fed sqarely on the table for not only a March hike, but AT LEAST two more hikes this year and possibly even a 0.5% hike at some point.   Strong Comfort, Strong Jobs, Strong Market, Strong Dollar – if they aren't
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