Record-Breaking Wednesday – Dow 20,000 Back in Sight!

Will today be the day?

Yesterday the Dow closed 88 points shy of 20,000 and this morning the Futures are flying up 81 points so far as Europe rallies off of our rally so now we can rally because they are rallying and tomorrow they can rally because we rallied and we don't even need a reason – isn't that great?

We have to hit 20,000 because CNBC has hats in front of all their anchors so the fix is obviously in – the question is what happens next?  Earnings, so far, have been decent with companies like JNJ, DD, CNI, CA, EAT, NSC, CP, IBKR and NVS lowering guidance in the past week (3 rails!) while ROK, MKC, BABA, SAP, STX, IBM and NFLX guiding up.  

Despite the poor outlook by the rails, material stocks have led the rally this week on expectations of infrastructure spending (a theme I discussed on Money Talk last week).  In fact, at last year's Trader's Expo (2/22) in NY, my value investing lecture featured a PowerPoint presentation on Freeport McMoran (FCX) because we saw this coming LONG before Trump got elected.  At the time, I said:

We can make that a more aggressive trade by adding the Jan $5 ($3.15)/$10 ($1.25) bull call spread at $1.90 and let's say we do a 2:1 ratio making the trade look like this:

  • Sell 10 FCX 2018 $5 puts for $2.16 ($2,160)
  • Buy 20 FCX Jan $5 calls for $3.15 ($6,300)
  • Sell 20 FCX Jan $10 calls for $1.25 ($2,500)

That nets us into $10,000 worth of Jan spreads for $1,640 so the profit potential on this trade would be $8,360 for a 509% gain on cash.

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