Tempting Tuesday – Fools Rush Us Towards the Strong Bounce Lines

We're getting there.

The S&P 500 Futures (/ES) are only at 2,431.50 at 7:49 and yesterday, in our PSW Morning Report, we predicted a weak bounce to 2,430 while the strong bounce line is still 0.5% away at 2,442.50 and, if we don't get over the strong bounce line today, odds are this has just been the pause that refreshes for the bears, who are consolidating above -2.5% line (2,418) for a proper break-down – but we still have faith as those dip-buyers are well-trained, aren't they?

We haven't made any bearish bets yet but we'd love to see 5,850 tested on the Nasdaq, but it's not likely we get that high today.  Nor is 1,377.50 likely on the Russell but the Dow (/YM) is over its strong bounce line at 21,670 and failing that line will be the signal we're looking for to add some shorts to the indexes.  These are the handy charts I made for our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room:

The S&P Chart was already posted in the Morning Report and let's not give the Dow too much credit as we were looking to confirm a more bearish channel, from 22,000 to 21,450 (-2.5%) but, in reality, the drop was only from 22,100 to 21,600, which is 500 points so our 5% Rule™ says to expect 100-point bounces to 21,700 and 21,800.  The 22,670 line confirms that the Dow is failing within a longer-term, weaker trend we believe is in progress.  The short story is, the Dow has to hit 21,800 before we consider it in proper recovery.  

If you want an upside hedge right away, try the Nikkei (/NKD) which tested a major bottom at 19,300.  Once they cross over 19,400, that line can be used for a bullish bet with tight stops below 19,400 and, of course, the Nikkei loves a strong Dollar (good for exports), and the Dollar is nice and low in its channel at 93.35 so a higher Dollar gives us a greenlight on that bounce play.  

With the Nikkei falling from 20,300, a 5% pullback takes them to 19,285 and the low was actually 19,265, so a bit of an overshoot
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