Watch Germany's DAX closely:
That 10,000 line is hyper-critical – it's their Must Hold Line and, as you can see on the daily chart – it's barely been holding and just failed again this morning as Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment survey showed a horriffic post-Brexit (July 4-18) drop to -6.8 from +19.2 in June and miles below the forecast of leading economorons, who expected +9 as the DAX rallied 800 points during the period in question.
Even worse was the assessment of Eurozone Sentiment, which fell from 20.2 in June to -14.7 in July. This indicates that Europe is not out of the woods just yet and we, at PSW, certainly got that impression from the way the Euro Stoxx Index failed to get back over 3,000 last week but, so far, we are still alone in our bearish veiw of the market.
Volume on the S&P ETF (SPY) yesterday was 54M, a new record low for the year and about half the average volume for 2016, which is less than 2/3 of 2015s average volume so, if you are buying stocks – you're pretty much alone these days. I gave a little lecture on why low volumes lead to stock rallies in our Live Trading Webinar and it's things like this that keep us in CASH!!! and on the sidelines – because this whole move up (8.5%) since the Brexit downturn has come on extremely low volume.
As you can see from Dave Fry's note on Friday's S&P chart, volumes have been going down and down and the only "people" buying are the Central Banksters, who are desperately propping up the markets lest people begin to panic and start causing liquidity crises which the CBs are in no condition to deal with at the moment.
Unfortunately, while it's easy enough to push the market to record highs when Central Banks step in and begin buying up equities – sustaining them there is quite another story and here's why:
Let's say you have a car lot with 100 VW Beetle Convertibles and you bought them for $20,000 and you hope to sell them for