TGIF – The Holidays Can’t Come too Soon

Wow, what a day!

I know some of us forgot that markets don't always go up.  As I have been warning you for quite some time, they can go down very violently after these low-volume rallies.  I think the worst thing about yesterday's sell-off is that there wasn't any particular bad news and, in fact, we're being promised vaccines by Election Day (what a coincidence) and whether they work or not is certainly not the point from the same people who gave us hydroxychloroquine and suggested we drink bleach and inject sunlight into our bodies.  

Remember from last week that 3,420 is our support line on the S&P and that's 20% above our must hold line at 2,850 (see "Toppy Tuesday – As Usual").  We're not there yet, with the S&P bouncing off 3,420 yesterday but, if that breaks – there isn't any real support on /ES (S&P 500 Futures) until we hit the 50-day moving average at 3,300.  That makes shorting /ES below the 3,400 line a high-probability play where we can keep tight stops above it and hopefully catch a ride down to 3,300, which would pay $50 per point, per contract or $5,000 per contract.  

What we have, so far, is just a minor correction and, if we hold that 20% line, we're still in a very bullish market. What matters now is how much of a bounce we get from yesterday's drop, which began at 3,590 on Wednesday (see "Record High Wednesday – Up, Up and More Up"), which is 5% over the 20% line which is what we call a "normal overshoot" in our 5% Rule™, which also tells us that we can expect at least a 20% bounce (of the drop) off 3,420 so it's a 170-point drop so a 34-point bounce (weak) takes us to 3,455 and another 34 points (strong) would be 3,479 so those are the lines we'll be watching this morning.  

A failure of the weak bounce on the first day after a drop is a very bearish sign and, by day two, which is all the way to Tuesday now with the Holiday Weekend, would also be a bearish sign while clearing the strong bounce
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