We are officially back to where we were on October 12th on the S&P 500 and still below where we were on the 19th, when I wrote: "TGIF – Closing out a Weak Week in the Markets," saying:
That's right, we opened on Monday at 2,763 and closed at 2,750 on the S&P (/ES) and this morning we're at 2,782 and climbing on a supportive note out of China, whose entral bank governor and banking and securities regulators said recent volatility in Chinese stocks didn’t reflect the nation’s economic fundamentals and “stable financial system.”
That flipped the Shanghai up 2.5% into the close, reversing a sharp downturn as China released weaker (6.5%) GDP data than expected (6.7%). Chinese exports, by the way, held steady from last quarter as they are not, so far, being affected much by Trump's tarrifs, which is actually bad because that means that there's more potential trouble for their economy ahead.
So here we are again, two weeks later, a little worse for the wear yet people, including reporters who should certainly know better, are calling me on the phone and saying "can you believe this rally?" Well no, I really can't believe it – it seems kind of unbelievable that we rally yet again on the same "progress" in China trade that both countries trot out to boost their markets when it suits them.
Oct 19th was options expiration day and we opened at 2,775.66, ran up to 2,797.77 and closed at 2,767.78 so we could have another interesting day ahead of us – especially with the Non-Farm Payroll Report coming out at 8:30 to povide us with real data that might move the market. Our last Non-Farm Payroll Report was on October 5th, when the S&P opened at 2,902.54, up a little from the previous days close despite a big miss in payrolls but we finished that day down 7 at 2,885.57 and we WISH we were less than 120 points (5%) away from that this morning.