Thinly-Traded Thursday – Weak Bounces Mean Nothing

You're welcome!  

We had plenty of time to execute our trade idea from yesterday morning's PSW Report, where I said:

"Our play this morning in our Live Member Chat Room was to go LONG on the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) at 5,775, expecting at least a weak bounce (and a $500 profit) to 5,600 and maybe a strong ($1,000) bounce to 5,625 because we're still in a low-volume environment, so we're not expecting any major selling just yet."

As it turned out, we hit the jackpot with a $1,500 per contract gain and now re-testing the weak bounce line at 5,600 because, as we expected, the volume was nonsense (48M on SPY – less than half an average day) and gains quickly reversed on all the indexes after hours.  European indexs are testing Friday's lows this morning as Trump is speaking in Poland and scaring everyone ahead of the G20 meeting.  

Image result for trump g20 cartoonIt's not because of anything specifically he's saying – just the general loss of confidence people get every time they are reminded this guy is the President of the United States.  

I'm in Europe at the moment and generally they see Trump as a joke but they don't think he's dangerous – just ridiculous.  If anything, he's helping Europe to feel better about themselves and take charge of World affairs, no longer waiting for America to take the lead.

Meanwhile, while Donald Trump is breaking trade agreements, other countries are making them.  This morning, the EU and Japan signed a major free trade alliance, shifting even more of the balance of Global Power away from the Unitied States as relationships we worked on for decades are being tweeted away on a daily basis.  Among other things, the pact would eliminate duties on cars, agriculture and food imports, as well as other goods and products.  This will put US producers at a tremendous disadvantage if Trump can't check his ego and come to the table.

Image result for trump g20 cartoon

 U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley told a U.N. Security Council meeting that North Korea's actions are "quickly closing off the possibility of a diplomatic solution," stating the country is prepared to use military force against Pyongyang.  Defense stocks could rise again today as President Trump said he's contemplating some "pretty severe things" to retaliate after the isolated regime launched an intercontinental ballistic missile.

 

IN PROGRESS