Thrilling Thursday – Learning to Love the Stimulus

U.S. Gross Domestic Product - forecast 2030 | StatistaUp and up we go.

I have to tell you, Biden's "restrained" $2.3Tn (it gets bigger by the hour) Infrastructure Bill really hit the sweet spot for the US economy.  It's "only" about $300Bn a year but it will actuall be paid for by our beloved Corporate Citizens, who will pay 7% more taxes than they aren't paying now.  THAT is how you grow an economy properly and this year, we'll grow 6%, to $22Tn and let's say we grow "just" 4% for the next 7 years, that's $29Tn and if we "only" add $1Tn of debt each year, that would "only" be $35Tn.

35/29 is 120% Debt to GDP vs our current 28/20.5 = 136% so, IN THEORY, Biden's current plan is going to shrink our Debt/GDP ration while growing the economy 25%, bringing tax collections up by about $1Tn per year – enough to cover the inflationary boost caused by the rising GDP.

As long as we have no emergencies and nothing else needs to be spent – things should be getting better…  Unfortunately, that's already baked into the marekt forecasts so it's a fragile rally but a rally nonetheless – as long as all the news stays good.  The news stays good for Pfizer, who have found their vaccine remains 91.3% effective after 6 months from their Phase 3 Trial and that's good news for all of us but mostly for PFE, who will have to give us Covid booster shots the way we get flu shots – annually.  

 

IN PROGRESS