What a crazy day!
In our Live Member Chat Room this morning, we called the short on the Dow Futures (/TF) off that silly run-up into the BOE Rate Decision at 7 am and the BOE surprised everyone (except us) by NOT lowering rates and the market quickly threw a temper tantrum – even though the BOE indicated they would be happy to raise rates in August if the economy showed signs of weakness.
August is, by the way, 17 days from now.
Truly investors have become complete babies, running after any shiny object and having complete fits if any little thing doesn't go their way. There's no such thing as long-term investing anymore – it's all about today and maybe tomorrow and oh look, something shiny….
This is why we wanted to short. In the last 2 weeks, 90% of the best on the BOE meeting were for a cut and the EU stocks rallied about 10% in expectation and our markets have made all-time highs in an attempt to catch up (even though the EU is miles below their all-time highs and oh look – shiny).
So, logically, how much damage could an actual cut do compared to the "shock" of there not being a cut? Thanks to the August "promise" the bulls aren't taking things too badly but we've been sitting out this rally with our 3 small portfolios parked in fairly market-neutral positions (and mainly CASH!!!) while our Long-Term Portfolio has been reaping the gains but yesterday we took some more money and ran on our LTP, which is up a ridiuclous 110.8% because, as I often remind our Members – it's not really a profit unless you take it off the table!
Philly Fed President Pat Harker was ignored this morning when he said the Fed may still hike TWICE (2x) in 2016. There are only 4 more meetings, 7/27, 9/21, 11/2 and 12/14 and we know what happened when the Fed hiked last Dec so, logically (what's that?), with the market at or near record highs – the Fed pretty much HAS to hike in two weeks.