I told you so!
Yes, I say that a lot these days and that's because I regret not being more emphatic with my cash calls in 2007 and 2008 when I was a less-experienced writer and felt "silly" being the only analyst who was worried about the irrational exuberance of the time. A good example is our November Wrap-Up from 2007 and, specifically, November 6th, when I said:
I don't like to play the role of Chicken Little but I feel like the casting is forced on me because almost everyone else I talk to is a bull. I said my piece about the housing disaster on Monday and that's only ONE of the things I think are really terrible in the economy!
This is the problem with the markets, we are rallying on leaders and, in the case of oil companies, the worst kind of leaders, while the rest of the market; retail, regional manufacturing, services, dining, discretionary… is in the doldrums. Rallying the market based on the energy sector is like a group of hemophiliacs electing a vampire as their leader, it's a recipe for disaster. And who are our other "leaders"? Commodities stoking inflation! Holy cow people, does anyone actually live on the planet we're investing in?
Back in August I told readers about the dirty little secret of the financial press, they are ratings whores just like every other aspect of the media, and that means they will tell you whatever you want to hear! Newsletters (like this one) are no different because we rely on subscribers to pay the bills and subscribers don't like to hear bad news any more than the average person who