Thursday Failure – What Now Weak Dow?

I fixed my hat.

Now I have something to weak for New Year's Eve.  As we have been expecting (and I know, even a broken clock…), there's mounting selling pressure on our indexes and we're certainly not going to get too excited about a minor pullback in a single day but it does make us feel better about getting a bit more bearish, even in the face of this run-up to 20,000.

The trading is very light-volume and meaningless and will only get more so into the holdiay weekend.  US markets are closed on Monday, London closed Friday, Japan is Monday and Tuesday, etc – so not many people around to trade at all, which can lead to erratic (well, more than usual) trading all around.  

Oil Futures (/CL) have clawed back to where we liked them short yesterday ($54) with inventories coming in at 11 am this morning – this will be fun.  Obviously, our Silver (/SI) longs are off to a good start and our Trade of the Year idea for Silver Wheaton (SLW) is already off to the races (see yesterday's morning post).

Our best call of the day was a short play on the Nikkei (/NKD), which I've mentioned before and was our first morning trade yesterday with a short at 19,500, one I reiterated to begin our afternoon's Live Trading Webinar, when the Nikkei was still up at 19,400.  

At the close of the Webinar, we took a long position on the Russell Futures (/TF), playing for a bounce at $50 per point per contract from the 1,360 line (2 contracts).  So that's where we are this morning, done with /NKD, back in /CL shorts and playing for a bounce off yesterday's 20-point drop in the Russell to 1,364 (weak) or 1,368 (strong), where it might be tempting to short it again if that fails.  

Something's gotta give as the market is priced to perfection for 2017 already.  As noted by Paul Brodsky: "US investors are anticipating a cyclical shift towards economic expansion via new tax incentives, business de-regulation and Keynesian government spending that promise to increase output, demand and asset
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