Well that was kind of obvious.
As I noted for Reuters yesterday morning: "OPEC has unrealistic expectation as to what their production cuts can achieve, U.S. production over the next two years is expected to wipe out much of the OPEC cuts." Yesterday afternoon, despite the 5% sell-off in oil during the day, I told our Members to expect another 2.5% drop this morning and we hit our $48.75 target on the nose just after 6am on the /CL Futures:
That comment box is from our Live Member Chat Room yesterday afternoon and we also had our Live Trading Webinar at 1pm yesterday, where we had a good disctussion about what's going on in the commodities markets. These are not hard calls to make because the oil market IS A SCAM!!! If you keep that in mind and understand how the scam works – you can make lots of money trading it!
This morning we decided Gasoline (/RB) has suffered enough at $1.62 though it may still go 1.25% lower ($1.60) before really turning up so our plan is to double down at $1.60 to average $1.61 into the weekend.
Oil I'm less enthusiastic about going long on – there are massive long positions in oil that may have to unwind as more and more people are realizing OPEC's cuts were too little and too late to salvage 2017.
Not only is the US simply bursting with excess oil in our inventories but, in an attempt to get rid of it (and fake demand), our manipulator friends have taken advantage of deregulation to EXPORT 500,000 barrels of oil per day (3.5Mb/week) more than they did last year. Isn't that insane? We IMPORT 7Mbd but then export 1Mbd (total) or oil and another 1.8Mb/d of refined products. That means the US is exporting 19.6Mb/week of oil, which is a full day of "use".