Told You So Tuesday – Brexit Fears Boil Over

This is why we cashed out last week!  

As you can see on the chart, the Euro Stoxx 50 is now down from 3,050 last week to 2,800, down 250 points (8%) since we took the money and ran in our Long-Term Portfolio at 1:31 pm in our Live Member Chat Room and, the next day, I reiterated our call for CASH!!! during our Live Trading Webinar (replay available here).  It is so much easier to cash out while the markets are still going up – that's why we didn't want to wait for the news to catch up with what we thought was a very obvious market call.  As I said in last Tuesday's morning post:

Meanwhile, while we wait, we continue to short the Index Futures when we get a good signal and we didn't get one yesterday but today we have 2,110 on the S&P (/ES), 17,950 on the Dow (/YM), 4,530 on the Nasdaq (/NQ), 1,175 on the Russell (/TF) and 16,850 on the Nikkei (/NKD) and we can short the laggards if 3 of 5 cross under AND the Dollar is over 94 – those are our marks for the day and VERY tight stops above. 

Look, I don't want to be Mr. Doom and Gloom – as I have pointed out, we have TONS of long positions because the Fed(s) have TONS of money to prop up the markets with.  I just think it's a good idea to protect them from a potential revisit to 1,850 (-12.5%) because, truth be told, we've made more money in our Short-Term Portfolio (400%) on our downside hedges than we have on our Long-Term positions (100%) so hedging is great fun when it pays off and merely an annoyance when it doesn't – kind of like making small bets on long-shots at the track except, in this case – we also have our money on the favorites!  

That afternoon, we decided enough was enough and we cashed out about 1/2 of our LTP positions, which left us tilted much more bearish in our Member Portfolios.  Meanwhile, our Futures shorts are paying off fantastically:

  • Dow 17,600 is down 350 points at $5/point = $1,750 per contract profit
  • S&P 2,063 is down 47 points at $50/point =

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