This is a solemn duty.
We have not had a miss in a decade of our Trade of the Year picks and I'd hate to break that streak. I am currently considering that my trade of the year should be NO TRADE as I really don't trust the markets and I'd rather short Tesla (TSLA), which is often a suicide run but TSLA never stops going up and $650 is $608Bn in market cap - more than EVERY other car company COMBINED – so that stock has left logic and reason behind long, long ago.
And yes, just one week ago, they made this chart and TSLA was 20% lower than it is now. Since then it's gained a Volkswagen in value and that's clearly ridiculous but, when things are clearly ridiculous, what is to stop them from getting more so?
So TSLA is too dangerous to short but, if I were, I would buy the Jan 2023 $800 puts for $350 and I would sell the Jan 2022 $800 puts for $295, which would put me in the calendar spread for net $55 and I would pay for 10 of those $55,000 by selling 3 Jan 2022 $750 calls for $152.50 ($45,750) so we'd be in the spread for net $9,250 and our hopes there are that the short calls expire worthless and the short puts either expire worthless or can be rolled lower and whatever value is left on the long puts greater than $9,250 is our profit. We'll see how that goes next year.
In last year's Trade of the Year Report, we ended up picking Barrick Gold (GOLD) at $16.50 with a net $750 spread that would pay $12,000 if all went well for a $11,250 (1,500%) profit if GOLD were over $17 in Jan, 2022 (one of our famous "Stupid Options Tricks" we teach our Members. GOLD rocketed up to $30 in the summer and we took an early exit and now it's back to $23.95 and I'm almost ready to jump back in:
I don't see the Dollar getting too much stronger so Gold and GOLD should continue to do well