Tricky Tuesday – Markets Flat Ahead of the Fed

What an exciting rally!

As you can see from our Big Chart, our indexes are up about 5% in the past 6 weeks and, so far, no sign of slowing down despite declining volumes.  The Russell (small caps) is our leader, with a 10% move in 6 weeks and only the one little pullback in early Sept – before a solid 7.5% move straight up since.  

As I noted on Thursday, we pressed our Russell (IWM) short positions using the Ultra-Short ETF (TZA) with Nov $12 calls, which were $1.35 at the time and are now $1.45.  Per our fabulous 5% Rule™, we expect a 2% (weak) retrace of the 10% run from 1,368 to 1,512, which was 54 points so 11-points back we'll call the 1,500 line and a stronger retrace of 4% would take us back to 1,490 (rounding again).  

We weren't too far off yesterday, bottoming out at 1,503 but we're pretty confident we'll hit our goal as the other indexes are at their 5% lines and not looking like they won't pull back a bit (1%) as well.  Not yet though, because tomorrow we get the Fed Minutes, which will tell us nothing new but will still be a good excuse to rally back a bit.  Also, the Dollar has dropped 1% since Friday and that is supportive of the indexes – as well as commodities and oil above $50 boosts the Energy Sector, which boosts the S&P, etc…

Anoter way to manipulate the markets is to throw out a bunch of upgrades like BAC upgrading Apple (AAPL) to $180.  AAPL is a major market-mover and BAC timed their report to come out on a very slow day, maximizing the impact of their report.  The reasoning is as bogus as the timing as BAC apparently JUST found out that AAPL will be able to repatriate some of it's cash from overseas at a low tax rate.  As I noted in our Live Member Chat Room this morning:

AAPL/Maya – If that isn't baked in by now, people are idiots.  Also, it's not true that AAPL somehow can't access their cash – obviously,


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