So far so good.
We have no regrets on Monday's call to get to CASH!!! Now, it is possible that it's a self-fulfilling prophesy as I went on TV, live at the Nasdaq on Monday Morning and told their viewers why I thought the market was drastically overbought – using very simple math that simply demonstrates that it's not likely that, after taking 200 years to get to $65Tn, the global markets were going to be able to justify a $35TN (53.8%) gain in 12 months.
What's most amusing to me is the number of people on Social Media who feel that they need to defend the bubble and come up with dozens of reasons why I am wrong and why "this time is different" because of Trump's Tax Plan, the Global Recovery, Emerging Markets, Easy Money Policies, the Sharing Economy, Robot Automation… All good reasons we should be having a rally – but not this INSANE, RIDICULOUS, UNSUSTAINABLE rally and, frankly, the whole time they are talking I just keep thinking "Wow, people just don't understand the basic concept of math, do they?"
It's the same math I used in 2010, when I wrote: "The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real With Global GDP!" when I used the same MATH to show that the markets should be much higher than they were. 7 years later, the math hasn't changed, the markets have. I'm not your enemy just because I'm trying to tell you the markets are overbought any more than your doctor is when he tells you your cholesterol is too high. I've been warning you for a long time and I've prescribed hedges to make sure our portfolios didn't suffer any major damage but now, unfortunately, the untreated condition has gotten worse and we need to operate/liquidate – IMMEDIATELY – to prevent serious damage to your finances.
Like a doctor, we don't know for sure that staying in the market will kill you, we have to rely on our observations and the risk/reward of cashing in vs. staying bullish into 2018. Is the global market more likely to add $5Tn (5%) in the next month or two or is it more likely…