Weakening Wednesday – Presidential Debate Spooks the Market

Well that went as expected.  

Yesterday we titled our Morning Report: "Testy Tuesday – Shorting the S&P 500 at 3,350" and we made a lovely $1,250 per contract on our shorts and got another chance to get in at 3,350 in last night's futures and we have another dip as the markets started selling off for exactly the reason I predicted yesterday:  

President Ponzi will debate Sleepy Joe Biden this evening and that's going to be depressing.  Much as we need to get rid of Trump, Biden is simply not an exciting alternative.  

Debates are a time when we talk about what's wrong with the country and, unfortunately, there's a lot wrong with the country and neither candidate seems like the guy who's really going to fix it although at least getting rid of the guy who is breaking it couldn't hurt.  It's like when you hire an incompetent plumber and your house is filled with backed-up sewage – you don't tend to say "let's give this guy 4 more years."  Sometimes ANY alternative is worth a try and that's what the Democrats have given us this year – "Biden 2020, he's not Donald Trump".

“Markets seem to be getting more concerned, with VIX futures peaking around the election,” said Edward Park, deputy chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald. “But whoever takes over, and however long it takes to take over, the person will be facing a battle against coronavirus.”

Delays to fiscal stimulus on both sides of the Atlantic are also a worry for investors, who fear economies will need fresh support in the absence of a clear timeline for a coronavirus vaccine. While U.S. lawmakers are trying to find common ground on a deal ahead of the election, a German government spokesperson late Tuesday warned of possible delays to the approval process for the EU recovery fund.

“For financial markets, there’s a growing understanding that it was a V-shaped rebound, but that doesn’t mean it will be a V-shaped economic recovery,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist with ING Bank in Frankfurt. “Any delays in fiscal stimulus will add to that


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