Wednesday – Still Waiting for Dow 20K


Come on Dow, we already bought the hats.  It's going to be tough going higher this morning unless the Dollar calms down – it's already up half a point at 103.45 but it is possible they are ramming the Dollar higher, pre-market, so they can take it back down later, when they need that final push to get the Dow over the hump.  As I said yesterday, it does not look good for the bulls if we can't wear our Dow 20,000 hats on New Year's eve and the Banksters want to close out the year with that nice headline print so expect all sorts of shenanigans over the next 3 days.  

At this point, we have stupid gains from our Nov 30th bullish hedge on the Dow and, since we don't really believe in this rally, I'd say it's time to get it off the table while there are still suckers buyers left to take them off our hands.   Our trade idea was:

HOWEVER, we could be (and have been) very wrong about the Russell and, if so and it heads higher still, then it's the other indexes that should be catching up so we can hedge our hedges with long positions on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq.  For example, the Dow ETF (DIA) is at $190 so a 5% move in the Dow would be $199.50 and we can make the following play to gain leverage:

  • Buy 30 DIA March $188 calls at $6.70 ($20,100)
  • Sell 30 DIA March $193 calls ar $3.75 ($11,250)
  • Sell 5 AAPL 2019 $97.50 puts for $10 ($5,000)


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