Wheeeee – it's so much fun to watch this from the sidelines!
Last Wednesday I listed Impeachment as one of the reasons we were cashing out our portfolios as the market went back to the top and BOY are we happy we did that! Impeachment is a pretty big uncertainty to throw at the market and the expectation of that (which came to pass yesterday) along with all the other issues we saw looming for Q4 gave us good reason to get to CASH!!! and see where things land during the final earnings season for the year.
We also didn't believe China was "fixed" and apparently it is not though now the pressure is on Trump to pull that rabbit out of his hat in order to distract people from all the other scandals he's drowing in – just like Nixon did when he opened relations with China in February, 1972 – ahead of his own re-election campaign. The Committee to RE-Elect the President (or CREEP) didn't break into the Watergate hotel until June of 1972 and it took all the way until July 27th of 1974 for there to finally be an impeachment hearing and Nixon resigned on August 9th, 1974, leading to two glorious years of Gerald Ford, which made Chevy Chase's career.
So it's going to be chaos for the next few weeks but don't worry, we have TEN (10) Fed speaches to guide us through the rest of the week, starting with Chicago's Charlie Evans, who already said this morning that not only is trade policy uncertainty slowing U.S. business investment decisions, limits on trade and immigration could mean slower potential economic growth overall. Evans supports more rate cuts and seems to be preparing us for a weak GDP Report tomorrow morning – possibly below 2%.
This is the 3rd revision of Q2, which started off closer to 3% (and the markets went higher on that BS) but was revised down dramatiallly as Residential Fixed Investment (includes Durable Goods) declined 2.9% and state and local Government Spending was revised down to 2.3% from 3.2% while net exports dropped 0.72%. Only Consumer Spending was a bright spot and we just got a TERRIBLE Consumer Confidence Report…