Which Way Wednesday – Bond Worries Continue as US Borrows $2.8Tn in 2021

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) | FRED | St. Louis FedIs there such a thing as too much?  

Our Government, so far, is looking to sell $2.8Tn worth of Treasury debt to unsuspecting victims in 2021 and that's up 64% from $1.7Tn in last year's record-breaker, which was almost double 2019s record $990Bn of debt issuance.  America – F*ck Yeah!  Too much is America's brand, so why should borrowing $2.8Tn bother us?  Well, math – for one thing.  $2.8Tn is bigger than the GDP of India or the United Kingdom, who are tied for 5th in the World at $2.6Tn.  Germany is $3.7Tn, Japan is $4.9Tn, China $14.8Tn and we are sitting at $20Tn and running a 15% annual debt.

So the World is sitting down for their Easter Dinner and America says to it's family – I know I make more money than you guys but this year I need another 15% to cover my expenses – so I'm passing the hat.  China has been bailing us out for years and they are busy hacking the WiFi, so we can't count on them.  Japan is already 250% of their GDP in debt and also borrowing about 20% a year – so they are not going to be much help.  Germany and the UK clearly have problems of their own in 2021 – especially Germany as mommy said she's leaving and the new mommy might be a fascist.

That leaves the UK, who is our ex.  We used to be part of them but we rebelled and slaughtered them and took all their land but they got over it and used to be proud of us but we incinerated that goodwill over the past 4 years and, even if we hadn't – can they really afford to lend us 107% of their own GDP?  That leave Uncle Fed, Jerome Powell and he's been a real darling these past few years and is still planning to lend us $960Bn in 2021 – but that's down from $2Tn he lent us last year so we still need $1.9Tn more from someone….

Supply may not be the primary factor driving yields higher. But it has been an accelerant, weighing on the market precisely because …
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