Which Way Wednesday – Expected Fed Cut Keeps us Above S&P 3,000 – for Now

Apple (AAPL) is up 3.5%, pre-market.

That's boosting the Nasdaq 0.7% but the Nasdaq (/NQ) is only up 0.4% pre-market and AAPL is up 8 points and that's 70 Dow points and the Dow (/YM) is only up 71 points so there's actually broad-market weakness in this morning's "rally" and the Fed is expected to cut rates by AT LEAST 0.25% this afternoon and, if they don't, there aren't enough Apples in the World to hold this market up.

But let's assume they do.  Then the question is:  Will it be enough to lift the markets higher or has all this Fed generosity already been priced in to the 2,500-point (10%) Dow rallly since June 1st?  AAPL is up (as of this morning's $215) $45 (26.5%) since June 1st so the market has not kept pace with its largest component by any measure.  That is, in large part, because earnings growth has slowed down tremendously since 2018 and would probably be negative if not for the continuation of the Trump Tax Cuts (and now they want to cut more Corporate Taxes!):

While there has been some improvement in Q2 earnings so far with 40% of the S&P 500 reporting – it's not the S&P 500 we're worried about but small-cap stocks that are facing cost pressures and companies that do more business overseas, where economies are definitely slowing.  In fact, the Eurozone's economy grew by just 0.2% in Q2 – just a tick above Recession and, adjusted for inflation – clearly in a recession.  Japan has made similar downward adjustments to their growth as well – and Singapore, and Hong Kong and – well, you get the picture…

Image result for trump fed rate cut cartoonThe ECB left their rates unchanged at last week's meeting but our beloved Commander in Chief has made it very clear that he will not tolerate any more responsible monetary decisions by our own Fed and he will get his rate cut or heads are gonna' roll

Meanwhile, while we wait for the Fed decision at 2pm and Powell's press conference at 2:30, we should reflect on the fact that the China Trade…
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