I was almost going to just put up my Jan 13th post again.
That one was titled "Weak Bounce Wednesday" and we opened that day at S&P 1,923 after bouncing almost exactly as high as we had predicted in Monday's (Jan 11) "Meaningless Monday Market Movement." This is why "Groundhog Day" is one of my favorite movies of all time. In that movie, Bill Murray plays Phil (great name), a weatherman, who gets trapped living the same day over and over again – yet he's the only one who is aware of it – for everyone else, they've never seen that day before.
That sums up my job very nicely. All day long I talk to people and reporters who are constantly surprised by things I have seen happen over and over and over again. Each time, they have no idea what will happen next and, while there certainly are variations from time to time – I'm able to predict the outcomes with a pretty good degree of accuracy, not because I'm smart – but simply because I'm paying attention. And I'm not the only one – this is from Dave Fry this morning:
Like Bill Murray it feels like a bad Groundhog’s Day again as markets moved right back down in volatile, what I believe, is a descending spiral.
For bulls, just when you think markets are ready for a big time rally, (nearly 400 points higher just last Friday), bears moved back in taking charge once again. I further projected on just last week Thursday we could expect a countertrend rally in the S&P from 1902 to 1956. We hit 1940 on Friday and have fallen once again to close at 1904.
Paying attention to repeating patterns does more than make our Members look smart – it makes them lots of MONEY because we're able to place our bets accordingly.