Are we recovering from yesterday's dip?
While the Futures are up 0.2%, the Dollar is down 0.2% so that's just a re-pricing against the weak Dollar, rather than a pre-market rally and, even with the currency boost, the Russell (RUT) has once again failed to hold the 200-day moving average at 1,573 and that's what signaled our March sell-off but it won't be a catastrophe until we fail the 50-day moving average at 1,545 – so that's the line we want to watch very closely.
Yesterday we shorted the S&P Futures (/ES) with a target of 1,580 and we hit that on the nose for a $1,000 per contract gain and then we flipped to the Nasdaq (/NQ) shorts at 7,600 and those paid us another $400 per contract into the close but this morning we're just watching and waiting – mostly hoping oil pops to $65 on inventories (10:30), so we can short that.
Oil is up from the $59-60 range in late March so call it $59.50 and 10% up from there is actually $65.45 but let's say $65.50 and it's a $10 run so $2 pullbacks to $63.50 (weak) and $61.50 (strong) but I'm betting weak holds as we have a holiday coming up. In either case, we can prettty confidently take a poke at shorting oil at $65 with a tight stop over (0.10) and then again at $65.50 and $66 if we have to and we'll carry our 0.20-0.30 loss knowing it's very likely that, when we get it right, we have a $2 ($2,000 per contract) gain to look forward to.
Remember, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!
Today we have a $20Bn auction of 10-year treasury notes at 1pm and it's long been a pattern that the market goes down ahead of a 10-year auction as it scares investors into buying bonds, which keeps the rates low and countries that owe $21Tn NEED to have rates a low as possible. This morning the ECB announced they will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the…