Which Way Wednesday – Waiting on the Fed Minutes

SPX WEEKLYWheeee, this is fun!

We nailed the top and, unfortunately, that means we're stuck in this nasty downtrend since last Summer with lower lows and lower highs on the bounces.  This leg desperately needs to break that pattern or by May it may be far too late to sell as everyone will have gone away already.  As noted by Dave Fry this morning – there are plenty of things worrying traders this week:  

  • A severely overbought market correcting 
  • Worries about a weak earnings
  • Greece crawling its way back to the forefront as the IMF and EU duke it out over another rescue
  • The Panama Papers revelations
  • Ongoing global economic weakness
  • Tuesday’s Trade Deficit indicated a downgrade to GDP ahead (the Atlanta Fed downgraded U.S. growth to only 0.4%)
  • Oil prices declined sharply for re-linking previous correlations to stock market declines
  • Dip-buying wasn’t seen for the first time in weeks

In fact, yesterday's pop in oil prices was the only bright spot that stopped things from getting worse overnight in the global markets and, fortunately, that was our long bet in yesterday's morning post, leading to a very nice $1,500 per contract gain on the /CL futures we picked long at $35.50 – not bad for a day's work!  

Our Silver (/SI) trade was also a home run, going from $15.05 to $15.20, which doesn't sound like much but silver pays $50 per penny for $750 per contract and Gold (/YG) popped off our $1,230 line to just $1,237 but still good for $225 per contract ($33.20 per $1 move).  The nice thing about playing Gold Futures is the relatively low margin requirement of just $2,000 per contract vs $5,720 per contract playing /SI Futures.  

And, of course, all of our index lines came up winners and we can play them again today, following the same rules and, at the moment, the Russell is lagging the rest, just under 1,095 (our entry was 1,090 and you can see our buys triggering yesterday afternoon on the chart) and
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